Extra! The Shifting Political Landscape: Perspectives with David Beckemeyer
A Candid Conversation about Political Trends and the Rise of Trump 2.0
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It’s clear that the forces driving outrage and division in America continue to grow, creating new challenges to civil discourse and understanding. At Outrage Overload, we aim to bring you insights and analysis that go beyond the day’s headlines, diving into the psychology, social science, and real-world impact of outrage media and political polarization. We don’t just report on events; we explore ways to bridge divides and promote healthier, more productive conversations across our differences.
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- David, host and creator
I’m talking to experts and friends-of-the-show in the coming days for a post-election special episode that will hopefully drop this week. In the mean time, I was recently asked to provide my answer to a few questions on this topic and I decided to go ahead and publish my answers, keeping in mind that it’s only been a few days and I’ve yet to have those conversations with real experts. These are just a few of my personal, humble, and modestly informed thoughts on it.
1. Can you please tell us a bit about yourself and your role in politics?
I'm David Beckemeyer, a seasoned tech innovator with a career that spans several decades. I was the founding CTO of EarthLink, where I played a pivotal role in expanding internet access to millions during the early days of the web. Today, I’ve shifted gears to focus on the social impacts of media as the host of the Outrage Overload Podcast. Through the podcast, I explore the rise of outrage media and its role in fueling toxic polarization. My goal is to bring together experts and insights that help listeners navigate today’s media landscape thoughtfully, reconnect with diverse perspectives, and ultimately lower the temperature in our public discourse.
To the question of my role in politics, I'd like to offer a preface/disclaimer: I'm not a political expert in the strict sense. Rather, I see myself as a journalist or independent researcher focusing on toxic polarization and related fields. My expertise comes from engaging with numerous experts across various disciplines, coupled with extensive reading of scientific literature, books, and other academic sources. I am also a trained and certified moderator for an organization called Crossing Party Lines where we facilitate dialogs (not debates) putting people together to share diverse perspectives.
2. As someone who looks at political patterns, what do you think led to the rise of Trump back in 2016?
There were many factors. One was the growing income inequality and the challenges faced by workers in shifting economic conditions where wealth and prosperity became concentrated into a few areas of the country while others struggled. The resulting economic desperation combined with the perceived neglect of these areas by coastal elites created fertile ground for Trump’s populist rhetoric.
Another pattern is the gradual erosion of American institutions and social trust. This breakdown made the country more susceptible to authoritarian tendencies.
We can’t ignore the effects of racial tensions and social divisions. The death of Michael Brown in Ferguson in 2014, followed by the emergence of the Black Lives Matter movement, marked a pivotal moment in American race relations. These events brought issues of racial injustice, police reform, and systemic inequality into mainstream conversations, drawing polarized reactions across different communities. Trump’s 2016 campaign leveraged these polarized issues with rhetoric that resonated with people who felt left out of or alienated by the dominant political narrative on race and law enforcement. By framing himself as a defender of traditional values and a protector against the perceived chaos of social change, Trump drew in voters who were uneasy with rapid societal shifts, including those related to race relations.
Another pattern emerged in the 2016 election: a new era in the use of social media for political campaigns, both in terms of reach and impact. While social media did not create the divides seen during the 2016 election, it proved to be a powerful tool to drive deeper wedges into these divisions by amplifying certain narratives. Trump’s campaign was very effective in capitalizing on these dynamics by using tailored ads and messaging that played into existing anxieties, fears, and frustrations.
3. The country was very divided on Trump from 2017-2021 with polls on whether people approved of his performance being split. Was his response to the COVID pandemic you think the real reason he lost the 2020 election?
Trump's response to the COVID-19 pandemic played a significant role. The bar was not very high and I don’t think he would have had to do much to position himself as a “wartime president” and win in a sweeping victory. But such wasn’t in his nature. Instead he gave inconsistent messaging, often contradicting health experts, among other missteps.
We should note that Trump never achieved a 50% job approval rating at any point in his presidency. The view of his presidency is much more favorable now than it was at the time. So while the Trump administration's handling of the COVID-19 crisis was a big factor, divisive language, consistent low approval ratings throughout his presidency, and other policy issues probably also contributed to the election outcome.
4. People were also very split on Biden’s run as president. What were the reasons not only republicans but independents and even other democrats were unenthused about his run as president?
This is harder for me to answer. I wrote a piece on our desire, as Americans, for excitement and the rose-colored glasses phenomenon mentioned above where public opinion can shift over time:
Ready for the Rollercoaster Again? America’s Strange Relationship with Calm
Despite a relative “soft-landing” economic recovery post-pandemic that many economists said was impossible, inflation happened, and became a major concern, eroding wage gains and fostering nostalgia for the Trump era.
Some experts I’ve spoken with have argued that Biden and his advisors misinterpreted their 2020 victory, overestimating public support for Biden personally, rather than seeing it as a rejection of Trump (some say Hunter Biden, as an informal advisor, contributed to this misinterpretation). This led to a broad dissatisfaction with the direction of the country, reflected in polls today.
5. How did his performance lead to not only a rise in popularity for Trump but a rise in popularity for the Republican Party?
This will be talked about for years, but for my part, I think the factors above: a combination of economic challenges (especially inflation), policy decisions (such as immigration and focus on culture wars), concerns about Biden’s age and competence (and then a perception of a cover up by Harris and Democrats about it), and general dissatisfaction (perhaps even boredom, as noted above), combined with our nature, upon reflection and with time, to create a rose-colored nostalgia for the past, all contributed to this shift.
Biden, Harris, and Democrats in general, appear to have, once again, misread the electorate. This led to policy overreach; a perception of neglect of core issues; and a perception that the party had become more focused on elite, urban concerns, increasingly out of touch with working-class Americans. This was exacerbated by the administration’s communication failures, struggling to effectively communicate its achievements and vision.
Trump won the media landscape game again, demonstrating his mastery of the media. This could be a whole separate piece, but ultimately, by embracing new platforms, engaging directly with voters, and creating authentic, shareable content, he was able to effectively communicate his message and mobilize support far more effectively than Biden/Harris and Democrats, especially with younger voters.
We should also note that there is a global anti-Incumbent trend. The results in 2024 align with this movement against current officeholders, reflecting a desire for change regardless of party ideology.
At the end of the day, inflation and economic factors probably outweigh these other factors but they likely all played a role.
It's clear that the political landscape is evolving in ways that challenge us all. Navigating these shifts, especially with the rise of Trump 2.0, demands resilience, patience, and a commitment to constructive dialogue.
We don’t have to feel helpless in the face of it all. By staying informed, engaging thoughtfully, and prioritizing empathy, each of us has the power to lower the temperature and create space for more constructive conversations.