📰 EXTRA! Trump's legal troubles
The cold, hard political reality
The political reality of Trump's legal troubles
The recent charges against Donald Trump have been met with a great deal of political division. Some people believe that the charges are serious and disqualifying (count me among them), while others believe that they are politically motivated.
The memes of the former president in an orange jumpsuit only go to set people up for disappointment.
The reality is that many Americans have lost trust in our institutions, including the FBI and Justice Department. This means that even if Trump is convicted of these charges, it is unlikely to have a significant impact on his political career.
The partisan divide in our country is also a major factor. Charges such as these would likely impact the political aspirations of anyone not named Donald Trump but Trump's supporters are unlikely to be swayed by the charges, no matter how serious they are. This means that it is possible for Trump to win the Republican nomination even as he is facing criminal charges. Crimes against the United States are another new normal for partisans in our intensely polarized times.
Another reality is that these cases will take years to run through the courts. This means that even if Trump is convicted, he is unlikely to serve any jail time. If Trump wins the presidency in 2024, he would certainly pardon himself and others, dismiss the charges, and cancel any further investigations. Regardless, a Republican will eventually occupy the White House, probably before these cases have concluded, and they could do the same.
Ultimately, it is too early to say whether there is any deterrent effect. It may depend on what happens to the various co-conspirators. If they end up avoiding consequences, as convicted criminals like Steve Bannon, Roger Stone, and other Trump associates have done, it may make future potential criminal conspirators less likely to believe that they will be held accountable for their actions.
In short, time will tell, but my take is Trump's legal troubles are unlikely to have a significant impact on his political career. The partisan divide in our country and the loss of trust in our institutions mean that Trump is likely to be able to weather these storms.
No question we are in for a long rocky road, and seems not just in the US. Unfortunately, the caution to follow our established legal processes cannot be bypassed without creating alternate means of subverting norms. The one lesson that I hope we learned is that treating dangerous demagogues with kid gloves has serious consequences. As you note the problem that remains are the divisions that allow camps to hangout in places that only support biases, real or imagined. No question this podcast focuses on this core division behind the unhealthy social dynamic that we are living with.